Deutsche Bank-UK economic notes Inflation Chartbook May Inflation – so c...-108771787

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《Deutsche Bank-UK economic notes Inflation Chartbook May Inflation – so c...-108771787.pdf》

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1. May CPI at target, but services CPI still some way away. UK CPI slipped marginally below our expectations, landing almost exactly at 2% y-o-y. Core CPI, was as
2. expected too, slowing to 3.5% y-o-y, dragged lower by a more subdued core goods CPI print (which slipped into deflation territory for the first time since Oct-16).
3. But the fly in ointment remains: services CPI came in around 10bps above our expectations, and nearly 0.2pp above consensus, slipping only to 5.7% y-o-y. What
4. We now see Q2-24 CPI running closer to 2.1% y-o-y (previously: 2.2% y-o-y), narrowing the wedge between our projections and the Bank’s forecasts. What about
5. June? Our preliminary forecast for June has CPI staying put at 2% y-o-y, with core CPI also staying put at 3.5% y-o-y. Services CPI, we think, will drop 10bps to

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#CPI