2026年中国经济展望:缓慢迈向低通胀(英)-Morgan Stanley-2025.11.16
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- 📄 文件全名
- 《2026年中国经济展望:缓慢迈向低通胀(英)-Morgan Stanley-2025.11.16-19页.pdf》
- 🎯 适合读者
- 投资人行业研究员
- 📊 核心数据
- consensus, at 4.1%. 2027 marks the turn from deflation to
- Growth downshifts, not derails. We see real GDP at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.6% in
- 2027 (vs. ~5% in 2025).
- Reflation is a slow burn. Deflator at -0.7% YoY in 2026, +0.2% in 2027. CPI stays
- slowdown; nominal GDP will likely stay subdued at 4.1% in 2026 amid lingering
- 🏷️ 核心议题
- #GDP#通胀#CPI#PPI